![]() But it is significantly more competitive with the loss of Scottsdale and parts of Phoenix and the addition of Mesa. Nearly 70 percent of the new 4th District is territory from Stanton’s current 9th District. Initial rating: Lean Republican 4th District ( Greg Stanton, D) 2 primary, but this is one of the best GOP pickup opportunities anywhere in the country. Republicans won’t select a nominee until the Aug. But the addition of Yavapai County contributed to the new GOP lean of the seat. Nearly two-thirds of the newly drawn 2nd District is from O’Halleran’s current 1st District in the northeast quadrant of the state. But the congressman is running for a fourth term in a newly drawn district that Trump would have won by 8 points, 53 percent to 45 percent. O’Halleran won reelection by 3 points in 2020 as Biden won the district by 2 points. O’Halleran was considered vulnerable in previous cycles, but the Democratic congressman is facing a new level of electoral danger. This might not end up being a serious race this cycle, but it could be more competitive later in the decade. But ethical controversies have made things complicated for Schweikert in both the primary and general elections. In this political environment, Republicans shouldn’t have a problem holding the seat. Trump won the old district by 4 points, but Biden would have won the newly drawn district by a single point. The 1st, which includes part of downtown Phoenix, some northeast suburbs, Scottsdale and some rural parts of Maricopa County, got a little more Democratic by the presidential numbers. Seventy-five percent of the new 1st District is territory from Schweikert’s current 6th District, according to Daily Kos Elections, so the congressman is running for reelection in this seat. ![]() But, of course, the races have to play out, and only time will tell whether the ideological nature of the delegation changes significantly. The new congressional lines offer the opportunity for multiple seats to flip partisan hands. Greg Stanton and Ann Kirkpatrick are part of the pro-business New Democrat Coalition. Tom O’Halleran is co-chairman of a small group of fiscally conservative Blue Dog Democrats, and Reps. Grijalva are members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, Rep. And all of them identify as members of the House Freedom Caucus, with Biggs a former chairman of the group.įor Democrats, Reps. All four GOP members ( Andy Biggs, Paul Gosar, Debbie Lesko and David Schweikert) were among the 147 Republicans to object to the ratification of Biden’s certified victory on Jan. And McSally lost Senate races by less than about 2 points in both 20.Īfter 20 years of a redistricting commission, there’s limited moderation within the delegation. In 2020, Joe Biden’s victory over President Donald Trump was the first by a Democratic nominee in Arizona since President Bill Clinton in 1996. Ron Barber in 2014 and Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick won McSally’s open seat in 2018.Īrizona’s House delegation has the same partisan breakdown (five Democrats and four Republicans) after the 2020 elections that it had after the 2012 elections, even though the statewide races have become more competitive. ![]() Both of those races occurred in the 2nd District, where Republican Martha McSally defeated Democratic Rep. ![]() But takeovers ticked down to just two out of 45 races (4 percent) from 2012 to 2020. Five out of 40 races (13 percent) resulted in a party switch during that decade. Takeovers ticked up slightly from 2002 to 2010, once a commission started drawing the lines.
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